Taiwan Unification Peace or War?

 By Harmen Batubara 

The world today is holding its breath. Amidst the roar of technological development and shifts in global power, an old narrative has resurfaced with a colder yet more fiery intensity: the future of Taiwan. This is not simply an issue of sovereignty, but rather the final chapter of an unresolved historical "vengeance."

The Historical Roots of One Nation, Two Paths

History records that the separation of mainland China and Taiwan began with a fierce ideological struggle between Communism and Democracy. Both fought for a single vision: the well-being of the Chinese people. When democracy (the Kuomintang) was pushed to the brink and crossed over to Taiwan, the world assumed it was the end.

However, reality has revealed something beyond expectations. Under different systems, these two entities have both achieved peak prosperity. Mainland China has transformed into an economic and military superpower that has shaken Western dominance, while Taiwan has become Asia's "little dragon" dominating the global semiconductor supply chain. Both are prosperous, yet they remain separated by a narrow strait and a deep ideological gulf.

2026: Xi Jinping's Ambitions and New Calculations

As we enter 2026, President Xi Jinping is reiterating an increasingly urgent message: Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and unification is a historical inevitability. For Beijing, allowing Taiwan to remain independent is a gaping historical wound.

However, unification is no longer measured solely by the number of warships or fighter jets. A new variable has emerged in this war of nerves: the "Maduro Effect."

Taiwan's Perspective: In Taipei, the arrest or extreme international pressure on figures like Maduro (Venezuela) has become a symbol of hope that the international community, led by the United States, has the power to pressure authoritarian leaders. There is bold speculation that the US could at any time "Maduro-ize" Xi Jinping through total isolation or international legal pressure.

Beijing's Perspective: In contrast, Beijing views this card in a much more pragmatic manner. With its economic power and influence in the region, China found it much easier to “Maduro-ize” Lai Ching-te—isolate Taiwan diplomatically, strangle its economy, and make him an internationally unrecognized leader before physical unification occurs.

Regional and Global Realities

Regionally, forced unification through war would be the end of the world for the economies of Southeast and East Asia. The South China Sea would be inflamed, and global trade routes would be crippled. Globally, the world is unprepared to lose its technological supplies from Taiwan, but it also cannot afford a direct confrontation with a nuclear-powered China.

This bitter grudge, more than 70 years old, now stands at a crossroads:

The Path of Peace: Requires massive concessions that currently seem impossible for both sides.

The Path of War: An all-or-nothing gamble that could destroy the prosperity both sides have painstakingly built.

What We Want to Remind

Taiwan unification is no longer about who is historically right or wrong, but rather about whether political egos and past grudges will overcome common sense for the sake of civilization's survival. China is already strong, Taiwan is already prosperous. The question is, are they willing to risk all that prosperity for the sake of a single line on a map?